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📈 River Rise Reality:
The Guadalupe River rose 26–33 feet in under 60 minutes
Gauge at Hunt, TX showed rise from ~2 ft to 34+ ft
River width estimated at ~100–200 feet (varies with surge)
Flow volume increased by hundreds of thousands of cubic feet per second (cfs)
At the peak, discharge was estimated at 200,000+ cfs in some locations.
That’s equivalent to nearly the flow of Niagara Falls — sustained for nearly an hour.
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🧠The Math Doesn't Add Up
The local terrain simply doesn’t support that level of synchronized watershed delivery — not in that timeframe.
For this to be natural, you’d need:
Heavier upstream rainfall (not reported)
Sudden dam release (no dam exists nearby)
Flash-saturation of hundreds of square miles without delay (physically improbable)
Even with 12" of rain over 100 sq mi, it would take several hours for that water to:
Saturate ground
Travel across miles of tributaries
Enter the main river channel
Accumulate to a 30+ ft rise in minutes
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The hill country of Texas sits on a bed of Limestone. The ground is saturated quickly. It will then run off to the rivers, streams and tributaries. This is not the first time this has happened. In 1987, 10 children died in a flood siimilar to this.
