I never ever ever have to 'watch the weather'.
I don't pay attention to anything but what the skies look like in the morning.
Before our walk, I run straight out of bed with the dog following, and right out onto our back deck.
Kids/husband usually still asleep.
That's how i know what to wear.
BUT there is No Shortage of people to interact with in daily life, who will tell you what the weather "will be".
Maybe most of what they think of it, is not really them doing the observing.
It's what they're told.
Not to bright. Like to take long walks on short piers.
Its my observation that in many cases that's all some people have in common. Sad don't you think. I am guilty of using the weather to break the ice when I'm in a situation where I might be with the person for a while and I think its more awkward to be silent as if they didn't exist. But if one cant take the conversation past the weather then it's going to be very quiet on my end. But like you I go out side with my cup of coffee and smell the air, or in the case of Kansas, the wind. I try not to be too opinionated about something I have no control over. Although, not tooting my own horn but I know when it's going to rain if I just listen to me. (we dont get along sometimes...)
